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Trading Tank
Market Analyst and 💎 hunter. Sharing alpha and charts on a daily basis. Follower of Christ ✝️🦈
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This week is absolutely stuffed with economic reports, as well as major US corporate earnings. Buckle up, this could be a wild one!
Key Events:
- JOLTS Job Openings - Tuesday, July 29, 10:00 a.m. ET
Q2 GDP – Advance Estimate - Wednesday, July 30, 8:30 a.m. ET
- FOMC Decision - Wednesday, July 30, 2:00 p.m. ET
Personal Income & PCE Deflator - Thursday, July 31, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate - Friday, August 1, 8:30 a.m. ET
- ISM Manufacturing PMI - Friday, August 1, 10:00 a.m. ET
- MAG7 Earnings
- US Trade Deal Deadline - August 1
Focus & Market Relevance
- The FOMC meeting and Powell press conference on Wednesday are central events. No rate moves expected, but attention centers on rhetoric around inflation, trade impact, and timing of potential rate cuts (September outlook).
- Q2 GDP sets the tone. A strong print supports growth optimism; weakness could shift markets toward safer assets.
- PCE inflation data Thursday will be crucial: wage-driven cost pressures remain the Fed’s focus.
- July jobs report on Friday offers a full snapshot of labor dynamics (critical for growth/inflation expectations).
- The August 1 tariff deadline looms large. Trade developments may add volatility if threats materialize or deals fall apart.
- Magnificent Seven tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple) also hit this week, tying macro sentiment to fundamentals. 160/500 S&P500 companies are slated to report this week.
Overall Outlook
This week will be defining. Powell’s press conference, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and July jobs report provide a full suite of data. Combined with corporate earnings and tariff developments, it's a risk-laden mix. Markets will be parsing whether growth remains robust, inflation stays contained, and trade tensions remain manageable.
CRYPTO: Outlook by Category
Bitcoin
Catalyst: PCE + FOMC tone + Jobs
Bull case: Fed signals Sept cut + PCE cools → BTC > $120K
Bear case: Inflation surprises + risk-off → BTC tests $110-114K
Play: Range: $116K–$120K; breakouts will follow macro tone. Bias = neutral
Altcoins
Catalyst: Earnings risk appetite + Friday jobs data
Bull case: Macro tailwinds + strong equities → alts pump
Bear case: Any risk-off → instant deleverage
Play: Short-term trades only. Not ideal until post-FOMC tone is clear.
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