【The Cook Capital Market View】 The 3-month RV and 1-month RV for Bitcoin are both around 30%, with the near-term IV and RV basically matching, and the VRP remaining in single digits. Selling in conjunction with DDH is basically unprofitable.

Chinese Community Daily Briefing ===== Release Date: 2025-08-13 Overall Market Sentiment ===== The group is significantly bullish on Ethereum's breakthrough, with most traders expecting $5000 to be the next important resistance level. Bitcoin is showing relatively weak performance, with market funds clearly rotating towards Ethereum, creating a distinct pattern of capital divergence. Hot Topics ===== • Seller strategies hit hard: The sell call strategy has been severely trapped in a one-sided upward market, forcing multiple traders to accept losses or roll their positions, with gamma losses exceeding theta gains. • North American Bullish (BMNR) effect emerges: Tom Lee's $20 billion ETH financing plan is driving the coin-stock narrative, with Wall Street funds continuously flowing into ETH spot ETFs. • Volatility structure anomaly: During Ethereum's surge, implied volatility (IV) remained stable or even decreased, indicating characteristics of a gamma vacuum area, with market makers losing pricing reference.

Chinese Community Daily Briefing ===== Release Date: 2025-08-12 Overall Market Sentiment ===== The group shows a clear bullish sentiment towards the market direction, with traders generally focusing on the potential impact of tonight's CPI data on the market. Most members believe Ethereum is performing strongly, with the key level of $4300 becoming an important support, and they expect it may break through the historical high to reach the range of $4900-5000. Hot Topics ===== • Ethereum ETF inflows hit record highs: BlackRock bought 150,580 ETH in a single day, and yesterday's spot ETF net inflows exceeded $1 billion, with ETH supply on CEX dropping to the lowest level since 2016. • Institutional funds drive bullish expectations: Wall Street institutions are entering the market in large numbers, changing the market landscape. Traders believe retail investors are selling off wildly while whales are aggressively accumulating, and now BTC and ETH trends completely depend on how far institutions can go. • Speculation on 401k pension policy expectations: The market is speculating that U.S. 401k accounts may include cryptocurrency investment options, with traders viewing this as a multi-layered game of "anticipated buying from those who expect 401k will buy."

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【The Cook Capital Market View】 Starting today, the implied volatility (IV) across various surfaces has dropped significantly, with the most recent declines being the most pronounced. 1M IV 33.96%, 1M RV 32.34%; both 6M RV and IV are around 44%. Therefore, from a VRP perspective, there are not many profitable opportunities left.

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【The Cook Capital Market View】 Recently, the RV of BTC has been lower than the IV across various timeframes, including 1W/1M/2M/3M. However, the mid to long-term IV for 6M and 1Y is lower than the RV. We believe this phenomenon may be due to the current price of the coin being at a historical high, with the potential for further breakthroughs at any time, leading to strong confidence in upward movement and an overall optimistic market atmosphere.

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