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For how many years have I been telling you that the government pulls employment data out of its big fat a**?
Who wants to bet that q2’s gdp number will also be revised downward soon?
Cuts coming.
1.8. klo 21.20
U.S. NONFARM PAYROLL GAINS REVISED DOWN
MAY REVISED FROM 144K TO 19K, JUNE FROM 147K TO 14K
Oh and then there’s this…
1.8. klo 21.42
Huge drop in inflation!
With inflation at this level, there is no excuse to postpone cuts.
Powell needs to put his ego aside and act NOW.
CC: @DataRepublican, @EricLDaugh, @SecScottBessent, @APompliano, @spomboy.
Payroll numbers revised way down.
Real time truflation now below 1.75%
I'm willing to bet Q2 GDP gets revised down
Chances of cut 85%+
This economy is not "running hot" outside of AI and energy. ... and the real estate market is virtually non existent.
cc @JoeCarlasare @VinnyLingham
1.8. klo 22.11
The probability of a 25bps rate cut in September just went from 37.7% to 81.9% according to the CME FedWatch tool (which is awesome btw).
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