1/ Let's explain today's jobs report with a simple analogy: The Labor Market Bathtub. 🛀 The headline data looks stable, but there are warning signs beneath the surface. Here's what you need to know. 🧵 2/ The Water Level = Unemployment Rate. At 4.2%, the water level is holding steady and doesn't look alarming right now. 3/ The Drain = New Jobs Created (NFP). The water is draining out as people find jobs. But the drain is slowing down. Today's NFP number was only +73k, a big miss from the 106k forecast. 4/ The Risk: If the drain (job creation) keeps slowing while the faucet (new workers) keeps running, the water level (unemployment) will eventually rise and overflow suddenly. Today's report shows that pressure is quietly building. #Economics #JobsReport #NFP #Fed #Analogy