The Fed's interest rate changes are mainly voting, with 2 chairmen (chief and deputy), 5 governors, and the president of the Federal Bank of New York + 4 of the 11 local federal bank presidents, a total of 12 people. And every personnel change in the Fed will affect the market's expectations for future interest rates. The upcoming replacement of Fed governors, and the new appointments are likely to be directly appointed by Trump, which may have an important impact on the Fed's future monetary policy direction. I guess the newly appointed person is likely to be Powell's potential successor, as Powell's term is coming to an end. It is expected that this new director will definitely be a "big pigeon" and will cooperate with Trump to accelerate interest rate cuts. This can also be regarded as injecting certain positive expectations into the market (but expectations are expectations, and landing is landing, these are two different things) Under this expectation, there is a high probability that U.S. Treasury yields may fall first, risk assets (especially Nasdaq constituent stocks) will rise in advance, and funds will return to the stock market 🧐 Therefore, this is Trump's bull market, although the macroeconomy is a little unsustainable, but it has been artificially giving a boost. Maintaining next year's midterm elections is also a top priority! 🧐
Rocky
Rocky3.8. klo 18.21
经济周期本质是美元潮汐周期 平均一轮周期为4.5年-5年 2.5年上升期(基钦扩张) 2年~回落期(基钦收缩) 从23年Q1到如今,沉浸在上升期中 回落期或许正在临近 顶部附近典型特征: 1️⃣高频宽幅震荡 2️⃣宏观数据混沌 3️⃣区间放量明显 4️⃣舆情热度新高 策略:流动性第一,收益率第二,容错率低,预防回撤,保住果实!
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