The Fed Held Rates Again - What It Means for Altseason🚨 No cuts. No pivot. But don’t panic. The real macro pivot could still be just around the corner. Here’s why I’m staying patient and focused on September for altcoins🧵👇

1/x The July FOMC meeting was a non-event. ❌ No rate cut. ❌ No end to QT. ❌ No liquidity injection. But none of this was surprising, markets had already priced it in. The real game begins in September.

2/x Why September? That’s when: 🔹 The next FOMC meeting happens. 🔹 The Fed may ease SLR rules for banks. 🔹 The Treasury may refill its TGA, draining liquidity. 🔹 Liquidity conditions could shift drastically. It’s the real pivot window I’m watching.

3/x Until now, the US Treasury has been draining its TGA to fund operations. That injected $500B+ into the market this year. But now that the debt ceiling is raised, that trend is reversing. And it could suck liquidity out gradually over 4–5 months.

4/x What does that mean? Liquidity may fall from ~$29.5T to ~$29T. 📉 Not a collapse. 📉 Not a bear market trigger. ✅ Just a slowdown. Think of it as a healthy pullback before another liquidity leg up. But it slows down risk-on assets like altcoins.

5/x There’s one potential offset: SLR reform. The Fed is considering easing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio for major banks, basically allowing them to buy more treasuries with less collateral. More treasury demand = more liquidity. Decision expected August 26.

6/x If approved, this could act as a liquidity booster right when it’s needed most. It would perfectly coincide with the September FOMC. So yes, TGA refill may slow things but SLR reform might reignite risk appetite, especially for alts.

7/x Now let’s talk #Bitcoin dominance. BTC dominance dropped for 5 weeks but just hit support at the 50-week SMA (around 60.6%). This level has stopped altcoin momentum every time since Trump’s election.

8/x If $BTC dominance bounces here and breaks above 64.5%, altcoins are in trouble. But if dominance rolls over and makes a lower low, that could open the floodgates for altseason. It all lines up with the liquidity pivot window in September.

9/x Don’t confuse an “altcoin month” with a real altseason. We’ve had brief rallies before. They always faded. What you really want is an “altcoin quarter” or, better yet, an “altcoin year” where 75%+ of top coins outperform $BTC for months. We’re not there yet.

10/x My current approach: 🔹 Focus on $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, $BNB. 🔹 Let bots compound in the background. 🔹 Stay out of microcaps. 🔹 Wait for confirmation, not hope Altseason is a trend, not a moment. And that trend hasn’t begun.

11/x If you feel FOMO right now, zoom out. Even if you're 3 months late to the real altcoin year, you can still ride 9 months of upside. That’s how the 100x runs happened in 2021 not by being early, but by being positioned with patience. Don’t chase noise. Wait for confirmation. The signs I’m watching: ✅ BTC dominance breakdown. ✅ Liquidity higher low. ✅ September Fed pivot. ✅ SLR easing. ✅ Altcoin season index crossing and sustaining.

12/x Share this thread with someone who’s feeling FOMO too early. We’re close but not there yet. Until then, accumulate, rotate, and chill 🧠