Quick market overview There's the ‘break’ we mentioned yesterday. Some green chasers and top buyers might be sweating. Let’s take another look. 1. BTC Again, I won’t cover the macro since that already looks good, instead, focusing on the short to medium timeframe, as that will mostly drive the ‘altcoin break’ we talked about yesterday, with some key charts now at important levels Yesterday, we spotted some ‘high probability chop’ levels on key altcoin charts (we’ll cover those later) and mentioned it’d be ideal if a strong bitcoin led that pause We got the push we wanted — from $117k to $122k — but hit local range high resistance and got rejected today. If you’ve been patient and bought the higher-timeframe dips in April/May, or before Ethereum’s breakout that supercharged alts — and didn’t chase green weeks — you should be sitting comfortably now. This is exactly why I always say don’t chase green, even if you believe everything will be much higher later in the cycle. Holding through these lower-timeframe chop periods can be tough and will likely shake you out for a loss, just like fomo made you chase the green. But anyway, Bitcoin higher time frames look good, and even the lower time frames still look gucci, especially after that push yesterday, even now after the rejection. For now, we just need to hold this range until a breakout to limit the rejection’s impact. Alts might feel a bit more pain if we dip a bit more into this local range, but in the bigger picture, this could be the last buy-the-dip chance for certain setups that haven’t flown yet. If the dip is minimal and bitcoin breaks out of this local range, we could still see an alt break, but with bitcoin pumping in dollars, it’ll likely be less severe and more consolidated in the ALTBTC pairs, with a BTC.D push. But this, Bitcoin leading, is healthy and exactly what we want. 2. BTC Dominance. As covered yesterday and in recent weeks, most of the cycle is BTC dominance up = bitcoin season. Only in the last ~10%, when Bitcoin makes its 2nd leg into fresh highs, do we historically see BTC dominance drop = altseason. That’s why it’s so important that, despite more ranging or dips on the lower timeframes, Bitcoin leads the market into the next leg with a clear 2nd macro move into new highs — historically the trigger for dominance to drop We’ve already seen the first signs of weakness in dominance and the start of this 2nd macro leg for Bitcoin, so it’s looking good — now we just want to see continuation. As you can see on the chart, I’m not trying to time the exact Dominance top, and I don’t care which of the three chart scenarios plays out. If you focus on strength, attention, and Alt outperformers, you’ll be up enough to handle any hits. So far, that’s worked — HYPE, AAVE, CRV, and ENA (all public calls) are up multiples, so I’m sticking to the plan and holding. Macro still looks super good, but as long as Bitcoin chops here, we can see some Dominance bounces. 3. ETHBTC Still looks extremely bullish to me on the macro, as it's still only in the bottom formation zone. All of Ethereum's pump happened while ETHBTC is still only in the flat bottom range and not even trending. This gives me the confidence (+ still a high BTC.D) that there's a lot more room to play Altcoins even though we are in the late part of the cycle. As you can see on the ETHBTC chart above, even though I’m super bullish on the macro, we’re in a higher-probability trap zone for the short to medium term as we hit the macro range low resistance. In the blue circles, you can see that all previous attacks and breakouts above (when the party really started) came with traps, shakeouts, and plenty of volatility. If you’re playing Altcoins or planning to buy: Zoom out and focus only on the HTF charts. Never chase green weeks, and don’t hesitate when prices drop and panic sets in. Focus on the strongest Altcoins and the sectors getting attention — not everything will pump like 2017, and the stronger coins will move faster, giving you room to endure breaks and choppy periods. And you'll be okay. / Late cycle but bullish on Altcoins? > Late cycle: No reason to be as exposed as in 2023. You should have already taken profit and, in my opinion, continue to do so. > Still bullish on Altcoins: Don’t hesitate to play Altcoins aggressively early (now) in the ETHBTC + BTC.D cycle plans. But also create a plan to scale out today. Will do another profit-taking post, as it’s not all black and white. You can take profit on certain parts of your exposure while still aggressively playing Altcoins.