At the end of Feb—coinciding with the first tariffs—the US experienced a broad-based turning point in inflation trends. Over the past year, >75% of ex-shelter CPI weights we track have shown positive structural breaks in trend inflation. These shifts reveal the breadth of price pressures—not their size—and remain hidden in aggregate indices and traditional rate-based measures. For details, see our new NBER paper with @GarciaZGaston: "Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data" 🔗