今日の思索、8/4/25: 正しい(下部のコメントを参照)。 安全弁として米国の消費者がいなければ、RoWは中国に関税を課す以外に選択肢はありません。
Michael Kao
Michael Kao2025年7月31日
Here’s the problem with the Runaway Tariff Inflation thesis. Services are already in DEFLATION. Retailers have absorbed 70% of Tariff increases thus far, for good reason — fear of Demand Destruction. What little Goods Inflation results WILL result in Demand Destruction, which means that the endless stream of goods from China’s Runaway Assembly Line get dumped in the EU and RoW. The inevitable result is that the EU and RoW are forced to erect their own Tariff barriers to China. It would not surprise me if the resultant GLUT of Chinese goods might have to clear at even lower prices NET of Tariffs, stacking Goods Deflation on top of Services Deflation. Where’s the ultimate safety valve for China? CNY/CNH DEVALUATION.
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