Circle is currently valued at $55B enterprise value. That implies on 2025 numbers: - 58.1x Gross Profit. - 125.2x EBITDA - 163.7x Net Income I added Circle Payment Network as a revenue line item - $570b+ B2B Payment Volume in 2029 - 20% of volume goes to CPN - 0.10% of take rate to CPN revenue Updated stablecoin growth assumptions - Stablecoin supply growing 30% YoY in 2029 to $1.2T - USDC takes 28.50% of marketshare - USDC is $370B growing 32% YoY - Distribution costs stay flat at 65% versus going to 70% Where I end up in 2029: - $9B revenue growing 25% YoY - 35% Gross Margins - $3.1B gross profit growing 26% YoY - $2.4B EBITDA growing 32% YoY Not a lot of upside in the current model.
60,66K