Musings of the Day, 4/28/25: As I am Chinese by descent, I get the whole angle of Chinese national pride in being able to "Eat Bitterness" and endure hardship. But the math is the math. When your entire economy is based upon keeping the Runaway Assembly Line humming, not because of Economic Profit or Demand, but because THERE IS NO OTHER WAY TO KEEP THE MASSES EMPLOYED, it really behooves you to find a way to make good with the US Consumer that buys 35% of GLOBAL CONSUMPTION. Talking with my Retailer CEO friends, PERMANENT decisions to relocate Supply Chains out of China are being made with every day that this Tariff War goes on. So yeah, the US is beholden to 4-year Election Cycles, yada yada, but China is at risk of SECULAR Economic Collapse if this Tariff War even goes on for ONE year. Trump 2.0 needs to provide a Face-Saving Exit Strategy for China, and Xi needs to take it.

ENERGY SECURITY = GEOPOLITICAL SECURITY I hope this is a wake up call to the EU and to the US that Grid Stability and Non-Intermittent Energy Sources is of paramount importance. If you want to see what happens to modern society if this persisted for two weeks, please read _One Second After_ by William Forstchen. Hint: _Lord of the Flies_. Even as China has snookered the West into the Gretaverse and decommissioning its Coal-Fired and Nuclear Power Plants, it has done the opposite and built up both Coal/Nuclear hand over fist. I gave a guest lecture last year at Denison University about this topic: The US is long Resources but SHORT on Policies. China is short Resources but LONG on Policies.

@briangobosox Up to them whether they self-immolate or not. I think this is what happens:

Back to the Tariff War. FWIW, I don’t think Trump 2.0 will or should fold on what I call the “Long Term Incentive Modifier” Tariffs. Maybe a ratcheting mechanism to give time for adjustment? That is what I would advise the Admin.

😂😂😂

As I mentioned earlier in today’s Musing, if you haven’t read _One Second After_, you should. It is a highly plausible fiction of what happens right after an EMP attack (or in this case, possibly a CME — Coronal Mass Ejection). It’s a terrifying portrayal of how modern day society devolves into a “Lord of the Flies” situation in under 2 weeks if power (think lack of refrigeration and lack of water filtration), telecommunications, transportation simultaneously go out. It also tells you that when the SHTF, the ONLY currencies that matter are 1. Food, 2. Water, 3. Ammo. I kept a sat phone in a Faraday wrapper for years before I lost hope that there might be someone on the other side to take my call. 😂🥲