My latest @nytopinion attempts to answer the question, "The Tariffs Kicked In. The Sky Didn’t Fall. Were the Economists Wrong?" Part of my argument is the economy actually has slowed & inflation has picked up, as you would expect. Plus Trump called off some tariffs and lags.

But there are two broader lessons here: 1. U.S. economy is mostly domestic services. Trade matters but it doesn't matter as much as some of the hype might make you think. (And I confess, I do suffer from TDS, tariff derangement syndrome.)

2. Much of macro is small on a percentage basis. But small things really matter a lot. 0.5% off one year's growth rate and $1,000 per household per year forever are the same. But the former sounds small and the later makes it clear it is a large unforced error.

P.S. Bonus lesson (a partial restatement of #2) 3. We often speak in dichotomies (does the economy have "inflation"? Is it in "recession"). But macro data is a continuum. And moves along that continuum can matter.