The most interesting part of the rise in disability claims during COVID is how clearly it's a grift. 'Why yes, disability increased, but only in an invisible, easily faked way that allows people to keep working at historically unprecedented rates for the 'disabled'.'

You can see the increase in disabled employment more generally. But keep in mind, this one isn't driven entirely by grifting. It's also driven by the rise of remote work. Remote work has been genuinely very good for the employment prospects of disabled people.

And of course, who can forget long COVID? This likely had one of the largest effects on changes in disability receipt during the COVID pandemic. In 2021, a few states started letting people claim Long COVID as a disability. Then HHS issued affirmative guidance supporting them.

There's, then, an uptick in disability that's perfectly timed with this change in disability allowances. Note: This is not timed with vaccination. You can clearly see this by looking at male versus female aged 16-64 disability claims. Notice how men jump with federal guidance:

International comparisons also make the lack of a vaccination relationship clear, but still, people want that to be explanatory. It reminds me of the Floyd effect failing to show up internationally. This has been the subject of endless conspiracy theorizing. That's unfortunate!

You can also leverage data on the elderly (timed with guidance) and kids (dissimilar timing). Sources:

P.S. most trend-breaks are fake. To learn more, see:

P.P.S. This is not to say Long COVID is entirely fake. But there's a huge fake element to it, and there'll clearly be a huge fake element to the related disability claims that started in each state in the months they allowed them, and nationally, after the memo pushed it.