According to Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who wrote “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” confidence in one’s beliefs is often not a measure of the quality of underlying evidence. Instead, sometimes it’s based on the coherence of the story that the mind constructs. “We believe we understand the past, which implies that the future should also be knowable,” he wrote. “But in fact, we understand the past less than we believe we do.”