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The US-EU trade agreement has been reached, marking a milestone trade deal.
According to the latest news, it has been confirmed that the US and EU have reached a trade agreement, with the specifics as follows:
1. A 15% base tariff: The US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods (such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors), significantly lower than the previous 30%.
2. EU's reciprocal commitments: The EU promises to expand its purchases from the US over the next few years and to invest heavily in the US, including $750 billion for US energy and over $600 billion in strategic investments in US industries, along with substantial military procurement.
3. The issue of automobile tariffs remains unresolved: The US maintains a high tariff of 27.5% on EU auto parts, but has stated that if the EU can pass relevant legislation to address US industrial product taxes, it will lower the auto tariff to 15%, hoping to achieve this in the coming weeks.
4. In this trade agreement, both sides will also cooperate to promote digital trade, supply chain security, export controls, and investment reviews.
Assessment:
Overall, reaching a tariff agreement with Europe is a significant resolution to a major challenge faced by Trump. I have always emphasized that there are two major hurdles for Trump in tariff trade: one is the EU, and the other is China.
Now, with the EU's tariff issue resolved, future trade pressures will naturally focus on China, and the next 90 days of tariff suspension are likely to be difficult to negotiate.
On the other hand, the US-EU trade agreement also has a potential condition: low tariffs in exchange for European countries' compromises on the Ukraine issue.
In the past, Ukraine could maintain its resistance against Russia largely due to the support from various European countries. Now that the supporters are gone, Ukraine's ability to continue the war has significantly diminished.
Furthermore, the US and EU reaching a trade agreement indicates that they have preliminarily reached a consensus on many issues. Earlier this week, after the "Tze meeting," I mentioned that to pressure Ukraine into a compromise, it is essential for the US and EU to first maintain unity and then jointly pressure Ukraine.
Therefore, the US-EU trade agreement also implies that the Russia-Ukraine negotiation process may accelerate, making it easier for Zelensky to compromise, marking a significant geopolitical turning point!


19.8. klo 19.18
Latest updates on the "Tezhe Conference": Is there a significant turning point for peace between Russia and Ukraine?
Finally finished summarizing the discussions between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders up to this point.
1. The meeting officially began with Zelensky thanking Trump eight times. Zelensky was dressed in a suit, and overall, his attitude appeared sincere and humble, indicating a potential for compromise.
2. Zelensky stated that the talks included Ukraine purchasing $90 billion worth of U.S. weapons through European funding as part of national security guarantees. Another part will involve the U.S. purchasing some drones manufactured in Ukraine, with the agreement expected to be finalized within the next week or ten days.
3. Zelensky mentioned that he and Trump displayed a map showing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories in the office and had a lengthy discussion about it, while NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg stated that the two sides did not discuss redrawing Ukrainian borders.
4. During the talks, Trump interrupted the meeting to have a 40-minute phone conversation with Putin. A Russian foreign policy aide indicated that Trump conveyed the details of his discussions with European leaders to Putin, who expressed support for direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.
5. Trump publicly stated on social media that he has begun arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, and after the bilateral meeting, he will initiate a trilateral meeting.
6. The German Chancellor stated that a ceasefire is necessary before peace, but Trump disagreed, believing that a ceasefire is not a prerequisite. The German Chancellor mentioned that a bilateral meeting between Russia and Ukraine will take place within two weeks.
7. Before the "Tezhe Conference," Trump mentioned at a press conference that he does not rule out sending U.S. peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.
8. Some media reported that Putin has begun discussing Ukraine's security issues with European leaders.
Summary:
1. Currently, it seems that the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have made a positive turn.
2. In my tweet yesterday, I also mentioned that the premise for pressuring Zelensky is that the U.S. and Europe must reach a consensus. While a complete consensus has not yet been achieved, there seems to be preliminary agreement on moving towards peace between Russia and Ukraine.
3. Prerequisites include the U.S. and Europe providing security guarantees to Ukraine while laying the groundwork for Zelensky to make compromises, specifically, to cede territory in exchange for peace.
4. Zelensky's attitude during this meeting with Trump has significantly lowered, indicating he is under immense pressure and is likely prepared to compromise, provided that the U.S. and Europe can protect him.
5. However, the focus will still be on whether a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky can be facilitated. Currently, Putin's stance remains that negotiations should be conducted by delegations, while Trump aims to facilitate a final trilateral meeting involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, or even a quadrilateral meeting with the U.S., Russia, Europe, and Ukraine, which still presents certain challenges.
6. Trump's rebuttal of the NATO Secretary General's viewpoint indicates a degree of compromise and concession in Trump's stance towards Russia, which is a positive development. However, whether Europe can fully compromise on the Russia-Ukraine issue remains a challenge. While it appears that a consensus has been reached, Europe is typically characterized by a loose organization, with national leaders having their own agendas, requiring significant time for discussions on key issues.
7. Achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine remains a long-term issue. Although there is a more optimistic trend currently, we should not be overly optimistic in the short term; we cannot expect that more than three years of war can be resolved overnight.
8. Putin's attitude and Russia's demands, especially regarding territorial issues, remain unclear. If disputes arise over territorial matters, reaching a final agreement will still be difficult.
9. Looking at the trend of gold, the market does not seem to have high expectations for peace between Russia and Ukraine, so whether the negotiations will ultimately succeed still requires more information and time.

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