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A Circle continua a ficar cada vez mais louca, agora ~$65B.
Em comparação
- Robinhood ~$69B, $1.3B de lucro líquido, 51.5x LN
- Coinbase é ~$78B, $2B de lucro líquido, 37.3x LN
- Circle é ~$65B, $259M de lucro líquido, 216x LN
A Circle agora é negociada por:
- 24.2x taxa de receita do Q1'25
- 60.7x taxa de lucro bruto do Q1'25
- 216x taxa de lucro líquido do Q1'25.
Os investidores claramente querem apostas em stablecoins.
19/06/2025
Circle is currently valued at $55B enterprise value.
That implies on 2025 numbers:
- 58.1x Gross Profit.
- 125.2x EBITDA
- 163.7x Net Income
I added Circle Payment Network as a revenue line item
- $570b+ B2B Payment Volume in 2029
- 20% of volume goes to CPN
- 0.10% of take rate to CPN revenue
Updated stablecoin growth assumptions
- Stablecoin supply growing 30% YoY in 2029 to $1.2T
- USDC takes 28.50% of marketshare
- USDC is $370B growing 32% YoY
- Distribution costs stay flat at 65% versus going to 70%
Where I end up in 2029:
- $9B revenue growing 25% YoY
- 35% Gross Margins
- $3.1B gross profit growing 26% YoY
- $2.4B EBITDA growing 32% YoY
Not a lot of upside in the current model.
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