“That news is old” people miss the point. In this space, timing and positioning matter more than novelty. The same headline can move markets if the setup’s right.

Some of the worst positions I’ve taken started with one subtle shift: My reasoning changed from “I think X will happen” to “I hope X happens.” That hope-based reasoning creeps in more than people admit to themselves. And to be fair, some degree of speculation and uncertainty is inherent. But the moment your thesis hinges on someone else doing something (e.g., “I hope the team launches X,” or “maybe a big account shills this”) you’ve lost control of the trade. That kind of setup isn’t invalid by default it just needs structure. You need to bracket it with rules. What helped me is refraining it like this: “My thesis is that X will happen by N time. If not, I’m out.” “If price drops to Y and fails to reclaim, the setup is invalid.” Without those constraints, you’re no longer trading a thesis; you’re praying for one to appear. The second-order problem? Hope trades linger. You hesitate to cut because “maybe tomorrow.” You anchor to your entry. You stop evaluating risk dynamically. And that’s when a small misstep turns into a big loss. Build structure around your beliefs or be ready to get punished by them.

Maybe controversial, but a big reason Sol leans into memes and lags on utility is the rise of tight inner circles. Memes are easy: - No dev work - Quick coordination - Fast cycles for attention and exits Once that meta takes over, incentives break and it becomes recursive. That’s what participants chase, so that’s what gets built. Why spend months shipping when coordinated pumps outperform real products? Builders migrate, go quiet, or play the game and the chain keeps optimizing for low-effort speculation.

Hyperliquid.

Do you think we see BTC first at:

Base down? Last block seems to be 30m ago..

- $300M AUM (10s of Xs greater than Mcap) - Top-tier performance, recently a 200% return - Major V2 update this week: New Token + Brand new Chart - Vaults launch: profits used for token buybacks - Big marketing push in August as soccer season Chart starting to curl...

Knowing When You’re Wrong (Simple Trade Invalidation) One of the most overlooked skills in trading is knowing when a trade is no longer valid. Not just when to stop out but when the core idea behind the trade has broken down. There are a few ways to think about invalidation: 1. Price-Based Invalidation You enter with a thesis and there’s a price level that, if reached, clearly proves that thesis wrong. It could be a break of structure, loss of key support, or failure to hold after a catalyst. Whatever the case, there’s a line where you say: "If it hits here, I’m out. The trade didn’t work." The mistake is treating stops as optional. A proper price-based invalidation is part of the setup not something you react to emotionally. --- 2. Time-Based Invalidation Not every failed trade ends in a sharp move against you. Sometimes, it’s the lack of movement that tells you something’s off. If you expected momentum or fast follow-through and the trade just goes flat, that’s a form of failure too. It suggests the bid you anticipated isn’t there. Time-based invalidation protects you from passively sitting in dead trades while better opportunities pass you by. If the trade was meant to move quickly, and it didn’t that’s enough of a reason to reassess. --- 3. Context-Based Invalidation This one’s more subtle but often more important. Sometimes price hasn’t moved much, and you’re still technically “in range,” but the environment has changed. Maybe majors reversed sharply. Maybe the narrative faded. Maybe the catalyst dropped and no one cared. Maybe a macro piece of news changed the market risk tolerance. In these cases, the trade may not be invalid by chart structure, but it is by context. The reason you entered is no longer present. This kind of flexibility is what separates those who trade the idea from those who get stuck in the position. --- Getting stopped doesn’t always mean you were wrong. But staying in a trade that’s no longer valid usually does.

Be careful assuming that large buys from one participant mean they “know” something - could just as easily be dumb money acting emotionally, or mechanically executing without real insight.

Favourite base project right now in terms of R/R and why?