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Based on the data from at least 5 Binance Alpha projects we recently launched, combined with discussions with market makers, the conclusion we can draw is:
There is basically no liquidity on Alpha; the so-called activity is mostly just accounts from the wage room being active. They sell as soon as they receive airdrops, and the same goes for BNB holders' airdrops. Don't expect to gain any new users through Alpha.
The above is for those who still want to take out a few points of free chips as costs to launch Alpha projects.
In the current market, for founders who are confident in their products but are troubled by insufficient market liquidity and hesitate to TGE at the time, I have a suggestion worth discussing:
First, take a look at how much funding you have left. For example, if the valuation is 30 million and you raised 6 million, and you have 2 million left, then calculate how many tokens will be distributed during TGE, including community airdrops and investor unlocks. You can even unlock investors early to solve the problem sooner. If the circulating chips outside the team account for 20% of the total token supply, then using the traditional business perspective, the reasonable market value of your project is 2 million divided by 20%, which equals 10 million. If you ask why exclude the team? If your project has come to this point, do you still want to cash out through the project?
Of course, there will always be investors willing to support long-term choices without selling. For example, we currently have at least 20 project tokens that have been sent to us but not sold because we believe they can improve. Additionally, the team operations also need to retain some funds. So you can take out 1 million directly to build a pool on DEX, allowing free buying and selling without needing to give away free chips just to launch a non-liquid Alpha.
Similarly, if your team only has 200,000 left, just take out 100,000 to build a pool with a 1 million valuation. Entrepreneurship should be practical; maintaining a high FDV with low liquidity is just useless vanity.
There are two benefits to this:
First, it gives investors, including retail investors who are not optimistic about the project, a chance to cut losses, which is a responsible approach. In venture capital, one must be willing to accept losses; most disputes arise because someone cheats, not just because of losing money.
Second, you can recover chips at a low price, and the remaining ones are all steadfast diamond hands. When the wind blows or the product becomes popular, the rise will be quick because there is no selling pressure.
As for those who ask, what if the project has no money left or if it continues to burn through funds?
What can be done? The project can close down and go back to work, or switch to the next entrepreneurial project to continue fighting. Only profitable businesses can endure slowly; as for unprofitable businesses, slowly closing down or closing immediately, closing immediately is better because it saves everyone’s time.
The above suggestions are only suitable for projects that have little funding left. Those with enough money to spend freely, who can still buy up chips after going alpha and then multiply their investment several times, are not included in this discussion and can play as they wish.
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