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TraderS | 缺德道人
Trader DAO (Dao) Man / Wild Macro Observer / Fork Waist Monster / Chain Small Catcher / Currency Circle Old Fritter / Soul Lineman / Fat Pig Flow Trader / Fund Maker / Old Captain Going to Sea / Vice Chairman of the Puller Committee /
Referring to the impact of Master Bao's speech on U.S. stocks and BTC before and after the Jackson Hole meeting in the previous four years, it can be seen from the K-line that in fact, there was no impact on the mood of the meeting in the past few years, and it was still in accordance with the endogenous power of the capital market and the technical line. But this year can indeed be said to be "this time is different", after all, he is still fighting with the king.
3,27K
It turns out that this week's expected adjustment is still very effective, the interest rate cut bet has been reduced from more than 90% to 73.5%, and Powell may drop even lower after speaking tomorrow night, so that the 25BP interest rate cut in September is more beneficial, otherwise the expectation will have to be cut by 50BP to achieve the same effect.
2,31K
Calm down and think about it, interest rates will definitely be cut in September, but it cannot be eaten by the market a month in advance, after all, if the consistency of expectations is too high, it is not good for the market and will accumulate systemic risks. That's why all kinds of people will jump out and speak out, the fundamental purpose is actually to muddy the water, in short, it is still the set of gameplay expected to manage. I remember that before the interest rate cut last year, it was like this, manipulating expectations and setting off smoke bombs to exhaust emotions before the real rate cut came. But this is actually very good, it can create fluctuations for people who really understand the opportunity to get on the bus.
5,53K
Lao Xu's wave of layout is in the atmosphere, I think it's better to hold on to a bit of a pattern first, and wait for the community FOMO emotions to shout OKB1000 and emoticons to fly before shipping
20.8. klo 09.35
90%+ of $OKB has now moved to X Layer — the heartbeat of The New Money Chain. This marks the beginning of a new era where one token, one chain, and one community drive the future of onchain finance.
23,39K
The wave of small range rebound that started last night may have come to an end for the time being, BTC is currently suppressed by EMA20 and temporarily unable to break through, and other currencies are BTC horses are looking forward, and the trend is basically an amplified and deformed version of BTC volatility, and it has basically reached their respective pressure levels.
At present, the BTC 108800 below is a strong support level, and I hope to take advantage of the rapid insertion of the macro sentiment in the past two days to open the V reverse, so that you can rest assured and boldly buy the bottom of the ether to hit the previous high again. If it goes strongly to the 110,000 integer mark, it is acceptable, so keep an eye on the news and the market in the past few days to prepare to buy the bottom.
Other currencies will not be repeated one by one, basically based on the position of the BTC after it is in place.
20.8. klo 18.02
This morning, BTC came to the target area mentioned yesterday, with a minimum of 112,500, and ether also came to the Fibonacci retracement range from 3,350 to the previous high of 4,794, which is near 0.5, that is, the position of 4,060. I copied a wave in the morning but it was all out, after all, although the position has arrived, the mood and structure seem to be still far from the last, and it seems that it is better to be careful in operation before Friday's Jackson Hole meeting.
Speaking of Friday's meeting, the market has basically warmed up for a week or two, sometimes doves and sometimes hawks, but in fact it is difficult to guess what Powell will say.
But what we do know is that Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 23 (22:00 Beijing time on Friday). The market is nothing more than worried that Powell's speech will deviate from recent market expectations, which will affect confidence in interest rate cuts.
But in fact, the effect of this meeting and speech is similar to last week's CPI data on August 12th, as long as it is not too excessive, it can only dispel the market's own doubts about itself, then it can be called good news. In other words, Powell can accept it as long as he doesn't want the hawk's excessive market.
Then if BTC can give a 108-110 before Friday, ether can give a 38XX-39XX position will be a very good buying opportunity, this position is a strong support, and it has also squeezed out the water that has risen since August, so it can be said that the profit and loss ratio is very suitable.
Therefore, in the past two days, we need to closely observe whether the market can give a sudden panic and fall opportunity to get on the car at a low price.
22,81K
The wave of attacks on Fed governors that began yesterday did not seem to cause much panic in the market, and it was nothing more than a cliché such as affecting the independence of the Fed, but after the Powell renovation incident, the market may have been numb, after all, Cook's influence cannot be greater than Powell's.
As a veteran real estate developer, Trump seems to be very willing to start with the house and decoration he is best at, probably because he really "understands the king" in this field, and he can find an insider to know the way. For example, when he visited the Fed's renovation site, he pointed out that there was no need to use wooden wainscoting and dig basements, and these non-essential expenditures greatly increased the budget.
From Kugler's sudden resignation some time ago to this sudden attack on Cook, it is clear that the Trump Organization is also making preparations.
Namely:
If Powell is decent, give him decentness.
If Powell is not decent, he will replace the majority of the voters with his own and then help him be decent.
In other words, cutting interest rates and releasing water is an imperative thing for the Trump administration, and there is no room for hesitation and mistakes. Then we can fully expect a larger wave of general gains before next year's midterm elections.
18 tuntia sitten
Jay Powell is under siege on multiple fronts:
•political pressure with a whiff of institutional overhaul that goes beyond changing the chair
•an economy flirting with stagflation-lite or a slowdown
•a committee splintering over managing the tradeoffs
14,89K
The just-released minutes of the Fed meeting indicate that most voters are still worried about the rebound in inflation caused by tariffs, citing the follow-up impact of large early imports in response to tariffs. Almost all participants at the Fed's July meeting agreed that it would be appropriate to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.5%.
The probability of no interest rate cut in September increased by two percentage points.
12,96K
This morning, BTC came to the target area mentioned yesterday, with a minimum of 112,500, and ether also came to the Fibonacci retracement range from 3,350 to the previous high of 4,794, which is near 0.5, that is, the position of 4,060. I copied a wave in the morning but it was all out, after all, although the position has arrived, the mood and structure seem to be still far from the last, and it seems that it is better to be careful in operation before Friday's Jackson Hole meeting.
Speaking of Friday's meeting, the market has basically warmed up for a week or two, sometimes doves and sometimes hawks, but in fact it is difficult to guess what Powell will say.
But what we do know is that Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 23 (22:00 Beijing time on Friday). The market is nothing more than worried that Powell's speech will deviate from recent market expectations, which will affect confidence in interest rate cuts.
But in fact, the effect of this meeting and speech is similar to last week's CPI data on August 12th, as long as it is not too excessive, it can only dispel the market's own doubts about itself, then it can be called good news. In other words, Powell can accept it as long as he doesn't want the hawk's excessive market.
Then if BTC can give a 108-110 before Friday, ether can give a 38XX-39XX position will be a very good buying opportunity, this position is a strong support, and it has also squeezed out the water that has risen since August, so it can be said that the profit and loss ratio is very suitable.
Therefore, in the past two days, we need to closely observe whether the market can give a sudden panic and fall opportunity to get on the car at a low price.
19.8. klo 12.03
BTC is currently accelerating its decline, taking long in the red box area, that is, the previous low of 111900-112700. For Eether, it is around 4150, and each currency is subject to the decline position of BTC after it is in place.
70,44K
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