Macro events from July 14th to July 18th: (time is calculated according to UTC+8) In terms of macro data this week, inflation data is the main theme, and the auxiliary data are retail sales data and PPI data, showing the US inflation response in June. and the stimulus to inflation caused by global geopolitical and tariff issues, which will affect the course of interest rate adjustment in the second half of the year. Tuesday, July 15 20:30 US PPI (June) YoY, MoM, Wednesday, July 16 20:30 US PPI YoY (Jun), MoM Thursday, July 17 20:30 U.S. retail sales (Jun) MoM Assess: 1. Inflation expectations have rebounded, and I personally judge that the actual situation is the same, and even more strongly than the expected rebound. There are two main triggers for the rise in inflation, one is that the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East in June led to the rise in crude oil prices, and price fluctuations were transmitted directly to both supply and demand, resulting in a rebound in inflation 2, the second is Trump's tariff issue, this is the third month after the tariffs were proposed on April 2, according to the logic of tariff-led inflation rise to a slower rate, the June and July data will more intuitively show the impact of tariffs on inflation. Therefore, it is important to focus on how much of the inflation data is stimulus from energy prices and how much is stimulus from tariffs. 3. Please note that the rise in inflation in a single month is the probability that the interest rate cut in September will be reduced, but it will not be directly overturned, and the focus will be on whether the inflation data in July and August is sticky after the inflation rebounds in June. 4. The retail data represents the market demand side, and the PPI data shows in detail how much pressure tariffs and energy prices bring to the supply side, and at the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the inflation caused by the increase in costs, and whether the supply side is a one-time increase in costs to the demand side. It is expected that the PPI data may rise, while at the same time guiding the retail sales data to weaken, triggering expectations of the risk of economic stagflation. 5. Of course, the data of a single month is not explanatory enough, and it cannot directly guide the sense of crisis on the economy, and the follow-up data needs to continue to fall, so once the data meets my expectations, the issue of stagflation will not be talked about for the time being, or on a small scale. 6. Inflation rebounded, PPI data rose, retail sales fell, once this logic is met, it may increase Powell's weight, Powell has more reasons to continue to keep interest rates high at the moment, thus effectively slowing down Trump's aggressive rhetoric against it. 7. I personally expect that the rise in #Bitcoin and gold from the weekend to Monday is still caused by Trump's threat to Powell, and once the data shows that it is more favorable to keep interest rates high, the probability of Powell being threatened will fall, which will weaken the bulls' momentum. 8. For the record, the probability of an interest rate cut in September is currently 59.2%, and it is reminded again that the rebound in inflation data in a single month may weaken the probability of interest rate cuts, but it will not be directly overturned, and it still needs to see how sticky inflation is in the later stage. Uncertainties: 1. Middle East geopolitical negotiations, whether the United States and Iran will successfully negotiate to reduce energy prices 2. Energy sanctions against Russia 3. Progress of Trump's tariff negotiations 4. Stablecoin "Genius Act" agenda 5. Crypto-related events in the United States, this week is considered Crypto Week 6. Whether Trump's aggressiveness towards Powell has increased or weakened 7. Fed governors have 12 speeches this week, and may continue to show a "political show" Summary: The above is a summary of this week's macro events, and I personally feel that uncertainty is the most influential factor in the market, and this week's focus is on the stablecoin bill, Trump and Powell, followed by tariff negotiations. The inflation data, I personally feel that it will not have much impact on the market, will weaken the probability of a rate cut in September, but it does not directly negate the September rate cut, and the data may help Powell continue to maintain the current high interest rate.