August 4 - August 8 Macroeconomic Major Events Summary: (Time calculated according to UTC+8) This week's theme: "Repair" market in macroeconomics Last week, due to the concentration of macro events and important macro data releases, the market experienced a whole week of "nervous sentiment," especially after Powell's speech. The data on Thursday and Friday brought a "two-level reversal" regarding the interest rate cut in September. At the same time, the poor employment data on Friday and the significant downward revision of actual employment data for May and June led the market to worry about the U.S. economy, resulting in a "Black Friday" for risk markets. This week, there are not many important macro data releases, and there are also not many key earnings reports from U.S. stocks, belonging to the "emotional repair" phase. How the market alleviates concerns about the significant downward revision of previous employment data is the focus! Another key point - the third round of China-U.S.-Sweden negotiations On Monday, August 4, 22:00 U.S. June Factory Orders On Tuesday, August 5, 05:00 AMD Q2 earnings report, 20:30 U.S. June Trade Balance 21:45 U.S. July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 23:30 U.S. 1-Year Treasury Auction - Winning Yield as of August 5 On Wednesday, August 6, Pre-market for U.S. stocks, McDonald's earnings report On Thursday, August 7, 00:00 According to the new executive order signed by Trump on July 31, the tariff order will take effect within 7 days after adjustment, officially effective on August 7. 01:00 U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction 03:10 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks. 20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 (in ten thousand) 22:00 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic participates online in a fireside chat regarding monetary policy with the Florida Chief Financial Officers Association. On Friday, August 8, 01:00 U.S. 30-Year Treasury Auction 22:20 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks. Uncertain time events On August 4, the China-U.S. Stockholm trade negotiations resumed, attempting to extend before the 90-day tariff suspension expires on August 12. On August 7, China and the U.S. held a closed-door meeting on rare earth tariffs. On August 8, the last day for the U.S. to request a "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire". If the ceasefire does not proceed smoothly, the U.S. will impose new secondary tariffs on Russia, especially targeting energy and food. Summary: 1. This week's framework revolves around "China-U.S. trade negotiations" and "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire". As long as there is no breakdown in trade negotiations, the impact on the market will not be significant. However, if expectations are successfully met, it will ease emotions regarding the global supply chain and economy. 2. I personally expect that the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will not stop, so be cautious of price fluctuations in energy and food after the U.S. imposes secondary tariffs on Russia. 3. Key macro data to focus on is Tuesday's Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is particularly important this week. First, services account for two-thirds of U.S. GDP, so fluctuations in this data will directly reflect the strength of the economy. The second quarter GDP far exceeded expectations, so service sector data is one of the important auxiliary data to verify this. Second, the employment data released last Friday was far below expectations, raising market concerns about the U.S. economy. Can the service sector data save the market's expectations of a U.S. economic recession? 4. The auxiliary data on Thursday's weekly unemployment report. Since last week's employment data was significantly revised down and questioned for being fabricated, will the "real" unemployment data lead to significant fluctuations in the unemployment rate? Will it guide an employment crisis or show that employment remains stable? This is a good auxiliary data point. 5. U.S. Treasury auctions for 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds this week. Attention is needed on whether the significant decline in yields for various bonds will affect the sales in the bond market. If there are significant changes in sales, a decrease in willingness to allocate funds may trigger concerns in the bond market. 6. The earnings reports from AMD and McDonald's are key reports that I think need attention. The former represents the upstream industry situation of semiconductors, while the latter represents the downstream consumption situation of fast food. Those interested can pay attention.