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Most CT accounts, even those of established influencers, are not worth that much imo.
Theoretically, there are two ways you can take over an account if you buy it:
1) Start a scam or memecoin. Not much upside here, maybe a few hundred thousand dollars if the account is really relevant.
2) Enter into content partnerships with brands.
I won't explain 1), but with 2) you would basically continue to create content and make money from sponsored posts.
I think big and relevant accounts could make $10k+ USD per month here.
Theoretically $120k USD a year. 1.2M USD in ten years.
The problem is that the CT creator business is very volatile.
The life cycle usually goes like this:
Build audience and relevance, if you're good you peak for a few months, and if you're really good (and lucky) you stay relevant after that.
Most people don't peak, and less than 1% stay relevant over a long period of time. Very few of the big influencers of the 2021/22 NFT cycle are still around.
You can't really plan for that.
That makes it not really interesting as an investment.
Also, if you announce the sale, the account is completely worthless.
If you're doxxed aka your content is you doing stuff in front of the camera, the account is completely worthless
10.8. klo 23.57
Runner (now infamously hilariously wrong about ETH) floating selling his account got me thinking….
What is the appropriate valuation of an X account?
He (wrongly) stated that his account could be used to make $20-30k/month by using K4ito (he could max reliably pull $10k/month bc he has no audience for that content = he won’t score well)…but I’ve been thinking about how to model the actual value…and this is what I’ve come to….
I think it’s not insane to use P/E ratios to try to value social brands.
You have divergence generally between “growth” stocks and then more established steady-state companies.
P/E ratios that are “reasonable” for growth stocks are ~25-50x
P/E ratios that are “reasonable” for established companies are ~10-20x
I would consider Runner established rather than growth (no meaningful social growth lately)…so consider he could likely pull $10k/month with low effort. Makes ~$120k/yr….meaning account is probably worth $1-2m if you can find someone dumb enough to buy that account
It gets more interesting when you look at hot up and comers (discoverable by trending/board topping on *multiple* socialfi platforms).
Think it’s not unreasonable to mark those at a 30x P/E…
Meaning you could see someone pulling in $30-40k/month (~400k/year) with an account value >$10m should they sell…
Mostly just a thought experiment, but interesting to consider
I would spend $250k USD on the account in question (assuming the sale wasn't public), I think I could break even after a year and a half. But not much more because that assumes a multi year time horizon
Actually not a terrible business model, if anyone big is looking to sell, DM me
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