August 18 - August 22 Macro Event Summary: This Week's "Simple" Talk, "Two Macros, One Geopolitics" This week's macro data is relatively simple, with only two important macro speeches to focus on, as well as one geopolitical meeting; these three will be the main "anchors" for the market this week. On Monday, August 18, Time uncertain, Trump meets with Zelensky at the White House in Washington. On Thursday, August 21, 02:00 The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. In the evening (time uncertain), Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Interpretation: 1. Zelensky's visit to Washington to meet with Trump will be accompanied by NATO Secretary General and the President of Finland to discuss the theme of communicating a ceasefire and peace framework between Russia and Ukraine. After last Friday's meeting between the US and Russia in Alaska, Putin's side has already clearly proposed a preliminary framework for a ceasefire, with the main themes still being territorial concessions and Ukraine's non-NATO membership. Trump is responsible for communicating with Zelensky, and if all goes well, he will announce the facilitation of a subsequent meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Of course, I personally do not have high hopes for this; while not joining NATO is negotiable, the territorial issue is something Zelensky cannot concede lightly. 2. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the July meeting, and several Fed governors will speak afterward, guiding the fluctuations in expectations for a rate cut in September; currently, a rate cut in September remains a high probability event. 3. Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with the time uncertain. The original plan was for the evening of August 21 in US time, and the meeting is held according to Mountain Time, which has a 14-hour time difference with Beijing time, so the approximate time will be on the morning of August 22 in Beijing time. Additionally, this meeting's speeches are divided over three days; the first day is the opening ceremony, focusing on the global monetary policy direction and other important data releases, but Powell's speech will not be extensive. The key date is August 22, which is Saturday, August 23 in Beijing time, when Powell will deliver a speech analyzing the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework. This speech will have a significant impact on the probability of a rate cut in September. The market's focus is primarily on how likely a rate cut in September is, followed by the magnitude of the rate cut in 2025 and the pace of policy easing. If everything is optimistic, the market is more concerned about how much of a cut can be achieved in the first rate cut of the year in September. Personal Analysis: Bank of America’s Hartnett stated that if Powell's speech is dovish, it may trigger a decline in global stock markets, mainly due to the "Sell the news" factor. If Powell is dovish, it essentially locks in the highest probability of a rate cut in September. I feel that if being dovish is a "Sell the news" scenario, then hawkish risks will also negatively impact the market. The entire situation seems like a "turtle poking its head out"; whether it sticks its head out or retracts, it’s still a knife. Final Assessment: This week is a relatively "vacuum period" for macro data, with the market's focus on the speeches of Fed governors and Powell. Since Powell's key speech is on Saturday, most of this week may be a "boring" time. The market maintains a relatively cautious attitude, stabilizing and oscillating, with the final emotional outburst still waiting for Powell's speech to conclude and determine the direction of interest rates in September. As for #Bitcoin, if most of this week is characterized by slight oscillations, it is not friendly for the current relatively high position, and overall liquidity this week is likely to be in a low phase.