我的兩分錢:人們對能夠被動賺錢的黑箱子充滿了好奇,想想外匯交易機器人、撲克機器人、銷售信號或社交交易——這些東西都不是真的有效,但大多數人仍然願意為此付費,而不是形成自己的想法和策略。 每個人都想把交易/投資委託給某個聰明的機器人,讓它產生「被動收入」——這在競爭激烈的零和交易中不會運作良好,因為專業人士會用他們自己的模型來吞噬這些,但在被動投資方面,它可以運作得很好。 在初步的問題解決之後,LLMs經過RLHF調整以適應這個用例,至少它們在遵循穩健的風險管理原則方面會比人類更好。 我們將看到兩端的崩潰——會有更少的人完全失敗,但也會有更少的人表現優異。 然後人們會擔心投資中的「中位數時代」,因為基本上每個人都在使用相同的模型做相同的事情,但隨後你會意識到,我們在被動投資和ETF方面基本上已經到了那個地步,只是會被加劇和扭曲一些。 而現在被動投資對大贏家的偏見是固有的(指數的加權方式),由AI驅動的被動投資將在某種程度上平衡競爭,因為它不會對小型股有那麼大的偏見。 短期時間框架和已知的細分市場將完全被AI金融顧問主導,但在長期時間框架和更具特異性的領域,人類仍然能夠保持優勢。
GREG ISENBERG
GREG ISENBERG2025年7月30日
someone on reddit let ChatGPT manage a $100 stock portfolio for four weeks and beat the market by 23%. here are 14 things it means for you, markets and the future of finance: 1. there will be a massive market crash caused by too many AIs making the same trades. when millions of ChatGPT instances start following similar logic, you get dangerous herding behavior. the reddit user asked to buy microcaps and it ONLY bought biotech. imagine this at scale. 2. companies will start optimizing press releases for AI readers, not humans. the businesses that write in "AI-parseable" language will get disproportionate algorithmic attention and investment. 3. we'll see the rise of "AI investment clubs" where people pool money and let collective AI strategies compete. it'll be like fantasy football but with real money and ChatGPT as your quarterback. 4. financial advisors will become "AI prompt engineers." instead of picking stocks, they'll craft the perfect instructions for AI systems and charge clients for their prompting expertise. 5. day trading will be completely dominated by AI within 18 months. humans won't be able to compete with AI that can process earnings calls, news, and social sentiment in real-time. 6. every retail investor will have an AI trading assistant by 2027. not managing their money directly, but whispering suggestions in their ear based on news they'd never read themselves. 7. investment newsletters will pivot to selling "winning prompts" instead of stock picks. why give you fish when they can sell you the AI fishing rod? 8. someone will build a "social network for AI trading strategies." think github for investment prompts where successful strategies get forked and improved by the community. a16z prob funds it 9. the SEC will create new regulations around "algorithmic investment advice." they'll scramble to figure out who's liable when your ChatGPT loses your retirement savings. 10. google searches for basic financial terms will plummet by 50%. why google "what is a P/E ratio" when you can ask your AI assistant to explain it while analyzing your portfolio? 11. the phrase "my AI beat your AI" will become the new "my dad can beat up your dad." AI performance bragging becomes a social status symbol. 12. your bank will offer "AI portfolio management" as a free checking account feature. basic AI investing becomes as common as mobile deposits. 13. AI will create the first "algorithmic insider trading" scandal. when AI can predict earnings better than executives, the definition of insider information gets blurry. 14. the stock market will have its first "AI flash crash" caused by recursive feedback loops. millions of AI systems reacting to each other's trades in milliseconds. the reddit post went viral because it feels like a glimpse into a world where everyone has access to institutional-level analysis. but really, it's showing us how quickly we're willing to hand over decision-making to systems we don't understand. maybe that's not entirely bad though. most people are terrible at investing anyway, they buy high, sell low, and let emotions drive every decision. if AI can remove the emotional component and stick to data-driven strategies, maybe we'll all end up better off. And plus financial advisors charging ~1% AUM has been unchallenged for too long. What do you think?
目前尚不清楚市場的系統性風險是會高於還是低於現在的水平。 支持的論點:假設所有模型都會做相同的事情,每一個明顯的交易都會過於擁擠,從而增加波動性和系統性衝擊。 反對的論點:每個人都可以根據自己的需求稍微不同地提示他們的AI,AI將能夠追蹤和管理更多多樣化的較不知名股票的投資組合,而現在大多數投資者集中在少數幾個大名和ETF上,AI將能夠為每個人提供定制的ETF,將資金分散到更廣泛的資產中。 可以安全地說,沒有任何可用的模型能在沒有用戶決策重大參與的情況下超越市場。
20.53K