This chart, from Apollo’s Torsten Slok, illustrates the steady climb in US growth expectations. Despite these increases, the current consensus remains low relative to my own probability-weighted forecast. Having said that, and as I detailed in a recent column, the forward-looking distribution of outcomes for 2026 is multimodal, characterized by significant "fat tails" on both sides. This dispersion makes high-conviction forecasting a challenge without timely steps to mitigate downside risks. Put another way: the potential for robust US growth is promising, provided: Private initiatives continue to unleash productivity, Policy missteps are avoided, Elevated financial valuations are validated by real-world economic developments, and The US avoids an excessive decoupling of growth from employment. #economy #growth #markets