"The road to complex negotiations has been opened" is the intuitive feeling after watching the statements from the leaders of the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe at last night's summit. It seems that the results of the U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks are: 1. The U.S. will cooperate with Ukraine and Russia, providing substantial assistance in the security field (likely similar to NATO's Article 5 mentioned earlier); 2. Trump has abandoned the idea of directly reaching a peace agreement by crossing the ceasefire, believing that peace can be negotiated while fighting; it implies that what cannot be achieved on the battlefield cannot be achieved at the negotiation table either; 3. Immediate preparations for a trilateral meeting between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, and even a future quadrilateral meeting involving the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and Europe is possible. Strictly speaking, these are not results but rather a consensus on the attitude and bottom line to negotiate with Russia. How should we view such negotiation results? The optimistic side is that Trump has begun to agree to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, and he even stated that Putin would accept this (Trump called Putin during the U.S.-Ukraine-Europe meeting), and immediate preparations for a trilateral meeting between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine indicate that all parties genuinely want to negotiate and have already started discussing specific terms, marking a good start. Hopefully, a good start is half the success. Of course, one could also be pessimistic and say that there is still a long way to go for a real peace agreement, but it is normal for such ceasefires or peace agreements to require many rounds of negotiations; it is hard to expect a clear result from just one meeting. Thinking back to the Korean War, it lasted more than a year, and the armistice agreement took over two years to negotiate. The further we go, the higher the possibility of a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine becomes. The core issue is that both sides can no longer afford to continue, and the public sentiment on both sides is yearning for peace.
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