The bitcoin top is very likely NOT in. I asked @Grok: “When a market cycle tops in stocks or cryptocurrency, is that usually and most often accompanied with euphoria as a sentiment indicator?” Here is its answer: Yes, market cycle tops in stocks or cryptocurrency are often accompanied by euphoria as a sentiment indicator. This phenomenon is widely observed and rooted in behavioral finance, where extreme optimism and overconfidence among investors typically signal that a market is nearing its peak. Here’s a concise breakdown: • Historical Patterns: In stock markets, tops like the 2000 dot-com bubble or the 2007 pre-financial crisis peak were marked by widespread euphoria, with retail investors flooding in, media hype, and narratives of “new paradigms” or “endless growth.” Similarly, in crypto, peaks like Bitcoin’s 2017 ($20,000) or 2021 ($69,000) highs coincided with frenzied retail participation, FOMO (fear of missing out), and speculative mania around altcoins and NFTs. • Sentiment Indicators: Tools like the Fear & Greed Index (for crypto) or the CNN Money Fear & Greed Index (for stocks) often show extreme greed readings at market tops. High bullish sentiment in surveys (e.g., AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for stocks) or social media buzz on platforms like X (e.g., #ToTheMoon hashtags) also reflect euphoria. • Behavioral Drivers: Euphoria stems from herd behavior, where rising prices attract inexperienced investors, leading to overvaluation. Metrics like high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in stocks or skyrocketing market caps in crypto often align with this sentiment. • Exceptions: Not every top is euphoric. Sudden exogenous shocks (e.g., regulatory crackdowns in crypto or unexpected economic data) can trigger tops without prolonged euphoria. However, these are less common than sentiment-driven peaks. [Colin’s comment: note that this “exception” is the complete opposite of the circumstances right now, where we have the US government *embracing* cryptocurrency like never before— the opposite of a regulatory crackdown.] • Recent Observations: Posts on X during crypto peaks (e.g., late 2021) often show retail investors celebrating gains or predicting absurd price targets, a hallmark of euphoria. Similarly, stock market tops often see record inflows into ETFs or meme stocks driven by social media hype. In summary, while not universal, euphoria is a strong and frequent indicator of market cycle tops in both stocks and crypto, driven by human psychology and measurable through sentiment metrics and market behavior.