Урсула К. Ле Гуїн, «Листя» Роки роблять дивні речі з ідентичністю.

У 2012 році я взяв участь у дискусії в малих групах, яку проводив @doctorow. Я випадково зіткнувся з цим, але він намалював картину, про яку я часто думав протягом наступних років, і це змінило мій погляд на світ.

Here's a great paper by Nobel winner Philippe Aghion (and Benjamin F. Jones and Charles I. Jones) on AI and economic growth. The key takeaway is that because of Baumol's cost disease, even if 99% of the economy is fully automated and infinitely productive, the overall growth rate will be dragged down and determined by the progress we can make in that final 1% of essential, difficult tasks. And this logic still applies *even* in a world with AGIs that can automate *every* task a human can do. In this world, the "hard to improve" tasks would no longer be human-centric ones, but physics-centric ones. The economy's growth rate stops being a function of how fast/well the AGI can "think" and starts being a function of how fast it can manipulate the physical world. Essentially, post-AGI does not necessarily mean post-scarcity: the entire cost and value of the economy becomes concentrated in the physically constrained tasks: generating energy, mining resources, manufacturing goods, transportation and so on.