I tend to agree with this take… Here’s what I said back in the June 19th MIT report: “So, based on our view that Core Goods and Food prices should move higher – and together make up roughly 33% of the total Headline CPI basket – we now have about a third of the index likely to push upward. This will eventually start to impact the Headline CPI number. However, the current offset remains Shelter CPI for now, which continues to come down quickly – exactly as we’ve been expecting. And at 35% of Headline CPI, it’s a really big chunk. I still expect these numbers to grind lower. So, much like what we saw in the second half of 2023, when the headline number briefly moved sideways before drifting lower again, we're likely in for another tug-of-war phase between Core Goods/Food prices moving higher and Core Services still trending lower. This is my base case. But eventually, CPI should begin to rise again as the dominoes continue to fall: higher goods prices feed into higher services prices, which is a classic late-cycle signature and a function of unit wage pressures.” July’s CPI data was another tug-of-war month, and it’ll likely stay that way for a while longer: Commodity inflation (early-cycle) → Goods inflation (mid-cycle) → Services inflation (late-cycle)… On the other hand, the second derivative of CPI ticked higher again in July, which I believe will eventually translate into a return to Macro Summer in the months ahead. Remember, a rising second derivative in negative territory doesn’t mean that CPI in year-on-year terms is rising; it just means that the pace of decline is slowing. However, once the white line crosses zero, this is an environment where inflation is accelerating. We're just not there yet, but we’re getting closer... I will dig into this in more detail in tomorrow's MIT video update on @realvision...