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The Kobeissi Letter
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S COMMENTS (7/30/25):
1. Current policy stance "leaves us well positioned"
2. Moderation of growth reflects a slowdown in consumer spending
3. Activity in the US housing sector remains weak
4. Inflation in the US remains "somewhat elevated"
5. Tariffs are "pushing up prices" in some goods
6. "Changes to government policy continue to evolve"
The Fed pause continues.
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BREAKING: The number of private hires as a % of private employment fell to 3.6% in June, the third-lowest since the 2020 low.
This comes as the number of private hires declined by -246,000, to 4.9 million, marking the biggest monthly drop since June 2024.
The private hiring rate has now fallen by ~1.5 percentage points over the last 4 years.
It is currently below 2001 recession levels and aligns with readings from the 2008 Financial Crisis.
It also remains well below the pre-pandemic average of ~4.0%.
The US labor market is stalling.

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It's officially Fed day:
And, the odds of the Fed cutting rates 2 times in 2025 have fallen to 36%, per Kalshi.
Meanwhile, the odds of 1 rate cut are up to 25% and the odds of 0 rate cuts are up to 20%.
If Powell does not set the stage for a September rate cut today, yields are set to surge.
All eyes are on the Fed.

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