#AAVE 觸發日線超賣。 回顧過去兩次超賣信號，價格都出現了持續性上漲，盈利效應非常明顯。 但這一次，我選擇再等等。 我更希望行情能再下探一次，最好觸碰到EMA100，甚至插針EMA200（趨勢多空的分界線）。 如果在這個過程中，價格能順勢走出一個微觀頭肩底，那就不僅是超賣反彈，而是趨勢反轉的雛形。 這樣的走勢未必一定出現，但一旦出現，風險極低，性價比極高，甚至可以說開單就賺錢。 如果市場沒有出現我想要的走勢，那麼就繼續找EMA50看漲邏輯。

In a high market, the double top pattern is the most common signal of a market peak: two close high points with a pullback in between, reflecting that the bulls have failed twice to break through, indicating a weakening of bullish strength. However, the real key to the double top is not whether the "shape looks like" it, but whether the neck line has been broken. Only when the price effectively breaks through the neck line and the pullback fails to recover does it mean that the bearish trend is truly established. Therefore, when you see a double top, don't rush to enter the market. The most reasonable strategy is to wait for the neck line to be effectively broken, and then look for a pullback confirmation. This not only aligns with trend logic but also keeps the risk within a reasonable range. To put it more simply: the value of a double top lies not in the two high points, but in "breaking the neck line + pullback confirmation."

在下跌趨勢中，均線常常充當價格的壓制位。價格多次反彈卻始終被壓在均線下方，這就是空頭主導的直觀體現。 直到某一刻，行情伴隨加速下跌走出長下影線，買盤力量開始接力。隨後價格突破均線，並在回踩時企穩，這才意味著趨勢可能出現反轉。 因此，均線本身並不是信號，真正有價值的是“均線位置 + K線形態 + 回踩確認”的組合。壓制被突破、回踩守住，這才具備實戰意義。 換句話說，盯住均線沒錯，但不能只看“穿越與否”。真正的關鍵是：市場是否完成了突破與確認的雙重動作。