CRWV is starting to enter the range, and the logic for the first warehouse is as follows. I hope we can get a bit closer to the range; the shots will be more intense.
qinbafrank
qinbafrank13.8. klo 12.25
Looking at Coreweave's Q2 earnings report, the 11% drop after hours is worth discussing. 1. Overall earnings report situation 1) CRWV's Q2 revenue was $1.213 billion, a year-on-year increase of 206.7%, far exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 420% in Q1. 2) Q2 net loss was $290 million, a year-on-year narrowing of 10%, while the loss in Q1 expanded by 143% year-on-year. Adjusted operating profit for Q2 was about $200 million, a year-on-year increase of 134%, compared to a year-on-year growth of about 550% in Q1. 3) The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $753 million, a year-on-year increase of 201%, with an EBITDA margin of 62% in Q2, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while analysts expected 61.9%, and Q1 saw a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points to 62%. The reason for the significant drop after hours is still due to: the year-on-year growth rate slowing from 420% in Q1 to 206% in Q2, and the extent of exceeding analysts' expectations was lower than in Q1; the Q2 EPS loss exceeded expectations, and the Q3 operating profit guidance is nearly 17% lower than analysts' expectations. 2. Performance guidance 1) Q3 revenue is expected to be between $1.26 billion and $1.3 billion, with analysts expecting $1.25 billion. The full-year revenue is expected to be between $5.15 billion and $5.35 billion, up from the previous estimate of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion. 2) Full-year capital expenditures are expected to be between $20 billion and $23 billion. 3) Q3 adjusted operating profit is expected to be between $160 million and $190 million, with analysts expecting $192 million. The full-year adjusted operating profit is expected to be between $800 million and $830 million, unchanged from previous estimates. 3. How do we view CRWV's earnings report? Personally, I think it's quite good. The single-quarter revenue has surpassed $1 billion for the first time, and the growth rates for revenue and operating profit are still very strong. The losses are due to being in a phase of large-scale capital expenditures, requiring continuous investment in purchasing cards and building data centers. In the short term, this is an investment, but it lays a solid foundation for long-term revenue. In my view, the most core data indicator for CRWV is the remaining performance contract amount (Revenue Backlog). In Q2, CRWV's remaining performance contract amount was $30.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 86%, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding Q1's 63% (Q1 was $25.9 billion), and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.2%. The remaining performance contract amount refers to contracts that the company has signed and even partially received cash for, but has not yet performed the business, so it cannot be recognized as revenue for the current quarter. However, this means that the performance revenue for the next few quarters or even one or two years is guaranteed. As long as the remaining performance contract amount continues to grow, it indicates that downstream demand is very strong, and the company's future revenue is assured. 4. Moreover, the business layout is also very solid 1) The company has signed expansion contracts with large-scale customers (such as OpenAI and Microsoft) and added large enterprises and AI startup clients. The acquisition of Weights & Biases has added 1,600 clients to the company, enhancing customer diversification and expanding the pipeline. New clients include Moon Valley (using NVIDIA GB200 NVL 72), and multi-million dollar multi-year contracts with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. 2) By the end of Q2, active power was nearly 470 MW, with total contracted power increasing by 600 MW to 2.2 GW. The company expects active power to exceed 900 MW by the end of the year. New investments include a data center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, exceeding $6 billion, and a large project in Kenilworth, New Jersey, in partnership with BlueOwl. 3) Emphasizing vertical integration: enhancing control and efficiency through the acquisition of Weights & Biases and the proposed acquisition of Core Scientific (expected to save $500 million annually by 2027). New products have been launched, such as archival layer object storage and flexible capacity products (on-demand, reserved, spot). Of course, the significant drop after hours also implies the arrival of the IPO lock-up period. After the release of CRWV's Q2 earnings report, on the second trading day, the stocks that were not unlocked during the IPO were released. Previously, I learned from various channels that many early CRWV shareholders were optimistic and continued to hold. However, the unlock amount is not small, and given the significant increase after the IPO, it is estimated that a small portion will choose to cash out. Overall, the business logic is still very solid, and future revenue growth is not slow. Once adjustments are made, it should still be a good time to get in.
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