Saat kita mendekati akhir kelemahan musiman untuk $TMDX, mereka rata-rata 37 penerbangan per hari selama dua hari terakhir. Harapkan lebih banyak hari penerbangan besar di paruh kedua Q3 dan kemudian Q4 yang kuat. Saya masih mencari pendapatan $630 juta+ di CY2025 dan pendapatan $820 juta+ di CY2026. Saya pikir $TMDX akan melakukan $2.70 hingga $3.00 eps di CY2025 dan $4.20 hingga $4.60 eps di CY2026. Pada titik tengah perkiraan eps CY2025/2026 saya, $TMDX saat ini diperdagangkan pada 26x eps 2026 dengan pertumbuhan eps 180% tahun ini dan pertumbuhan eps 55% tahun depan. $TMDX 40-50% undervalued pada harga saat ini. $TMDX memiliki kenaikan 100% selama 12-18 bulan ke depan. Masih posisi terbesar saya dan tidak berencana untuk memangkas dalam waktu dekat.
Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton1 Agu, 04.02
As many of you know, $TMDX had another very strong earnings report yesterday afternoon. Revenues up 10% QoQ and 38% YoY however it was the earnings that really crushed it... with EPS up 31% QoQ and 163% YoY. Two best things about the Q2 earnings report was net income margins coming in 22% vs 10% a year ago and the fact they raised full year guidance from 30% to 35%. July flight data was soft (just like last year) but I fully expect August and September to be better followed by a very strong Q4 (just like last year). The fact that $TMDX raised guidance means they also expect the last 5 months of the year to be strong and knowing how Waleed thinks, they will probably raise again with Q3 earnings and then beat that number by 3-5% so I fully expect $TMDX will do $630M+ for the full year which is 43% YoY. $TMDX has already started getting approvals on OCS 2.0 trials which could start in Q4 however $TMDX management said none of those revenues were included in the new guidance. Through the first half of the year $TMDX has net income margins of 20.1%, coming into the year analysts were looking for around 12% so it's been a huge upside surprise. if $TMDX can maintain 20% NIMs through the back half of the year, then they could do $3.70 in eps for the full year. Coming into Q2 earnings the analysts were looking for $1.70 for the full year so $TMDX might beat that number by more than 100%, just like they beat Q2 eps estimates by 114% This means, even with $TMDX up 11.4% today, the stock might only be trading at 32x 2025 eps with eps going 266% YoY (they did $1.01 eps last year) Looking forward, with several important tailwinds, I think $TMDX could do another 30% revenues next year depending on size of trials and revenues from European expansion (Europe is 45% of global organ transplant market) and I think net income margins could expand another 150 bps to 21.5% (assuming they finish this year around 20%) which would put non-GAAP eps in 2026 at approx $5.15 per share which means $TMDX might only be trading at 23x 2026 eps Very possible my numbers are too conservative because $TMDX continues to surprise me over and over again with their execution and efficiency. $TMDX is still my largest position and I added to it yesterday before the close at $106 and then AH at $114 and again today on the morning dip. My conviction has never been stronger and I firmly believe $TMDX will be a $250 stock in the next 12-18 months as they continue to execute at a high level. Also worth nothing $TMDX still has a 24% short interest so it's possible the shorts will need to start covering their 8M shares (8 days to cover)
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