I don’t see a clear reason why DATs would sell their crypto when mNAV falls below 1 Yes, selling crypto to repurchase shares optimizes the NAV/share and pushes mNAV higher but…. so what? I suspect they’ll be more willing to trade at a discount than to sell the asset they’ve proclaimed will out perform for decades to come. I view an unwind as admitting a weakness in the structure Maybe some of the smaller DATs will try this in an attempt to differentiate, but feels doubtful for the big three - MSTR, BMNR, SBET The unwind will be slow and drawn out imo. I don’t think mgmt rolls over easily That said, the issue for broader markets is DATs cannot sell shares to purchase more crypto when mNAV falls below 1, as it’s no longer value accretive to shareholders. Their crypto bid grinds to a halt MSTR has already declared it will no longer sell common stock to raise cash and buy BTC while mNAV is below 2.5 (currently around 1.7) SBET is kicking its feet of 1.0 right now, so I expect them to slow their rate of new issuance to buy ETH With those two out/slowing, that only leaves BMNR actively selling shares to accumulate ETH I see the big three as the most meaningful drivers of markets right now, by far. Their purchases feel to be the shots heard round the world, catalyzing others to follow When MSTR smashed *$20b* into BTC during Q4 last year, Bitcoin inflows were white hot while ETHs were meh Now with BMNR, SBET, and the other ETH treasury companies having accumulated over $10b of ETH (2% of supply!) since June, ETH ETF inflows are outperforming BTC by a considerable margin Net net I see the fundraising activity from these three names as the single most important data in markets today, and it’s looking weaker by the day
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