$TSLA bulls proclaiming that TSLA robotaxis will put $UBER out of business is as outrageous as their warnings in 2020-2023 that TSLA EVs would put legacy auto out of business, because nobody was as vertically integrated or could build EVs as profitably as TSLA. TSLA bulls’ earlier prediction that legacy manufacturers would go bankrupt turned out to be flat out wrong, just as TSLA bulls’ current prediction that TSLA robotaxi will put UBER out of business will prove flat out wrong. Lest anyone forget, TSLA still requires a safety driver in every robotaxi it operates. According to the latest FSD community tracker (sorry, the data is all we’ve got), TSLA efficacy is still just 449 miles per critical disengagement - far below Waymo, Baidu, and other autonomous manufacturers who are at 10K-17K miles per critical disengagement. While TSLA bulls proclaim that no one else is close to TSLA in unsupervised autonomy, there are now 5 fully autonomous manufacturers with robotaxi operations already up and running that don’t require a safety driver in their vehicles - Waymo, Baidu, Zoox, and WeRide. Despite TSLA’s huge data advantage, TSLA is not there yet. Why not? While TSLA bulls can shoot me down with personal attacks (“he’s too old”, “he doesn’t understand the technology”, and my favorite “he just wants to buy TSLA cheaper” rather than face facts, the reality is what $UBER CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said on Uber’s earnings call yesterday: “This is a very, very big market. There will be no winner-take-all.” This is not unlike $AMZN in 2013 which didn’t make its own products and instead offered a broad platform that promised next day delivery to efficiently sell all merchants’ products. The shift to unsupervised autonomous vehicles is real and will present huge investment opportunities. But it’s clear that UBER’s broad platform of 180M MAUs, autonomous partners, and shortest time to ride requests, make it uniquely positioned to exploit this shift to autonomy. Face facts people.