The lesson is simple: chasing bottlenecks creates outsized short-term gains. This quarter validated it. The world feels bifurcated: on one side, hyper-concentrated trades like AI infrastructure; on the other, a broader set of secular trends that require more patience but ultimately create more enduring value. The 2025 Framework in 3 1. Chase bottlenecks. The “Phase 1” AI trade was obvious in hindsight: datacenters, power, and interconnects. These were physical choke points, and capital flowed to the bottlenecks. The real opportunity now lies in what we call “Phase 2” AI: implementers. 2. Treat policy as a first-order driver. We’ve learned to treat policy as a factor class on par with rates or liquidity. Under the Trump administration, every executive order has carried market consequences. Defense tech, rare earth metals, and domestic datacenter investment became real, investable themes. 3. Look beyond consensus valuations. True secular trends often hide in less obvious, smaller names where they outperformed the S&P YTD.
7,19K