Who had "Inventory Decline" on their August housing market bingo card? It sure looks like sellers are pulling back now. New Listings ticked down for the 4th week in a row. 11% fewer sellers than last year. Check the latest @compass Intelligence market video. 🧵📽️ 👇 1/7

2/7 NEW LISTINGS New listings ticked down again this week as potential home sellers wait for better conditions. 66,000 single family homes. Fewer than any year except 2023. Hard for inventory to grow with few sellers. Also, this clouds the outlook for transaction growth. ☹️

3/7 WITHDRAWALS But it's not just new listings, more sellers on the market are choosing to withdraw their listings without a satisfactory offer. This withdrawal ratio is withdrawals as a percentage of new listings. Climbing now.

4/7 INVENTORY As a result, unsold inventory on the market actually declined this week to 859,000 single family homes. I wouldn't call it a "trend" yet (could pop back up next week), but if supply shrinks persistently that is a BIG shift in the market narrative.

5/7 WEEKLY PENDING HOME SALES We can see the contraction not just in sellers but in total sales. The weekly pending home sales came in fewer than 2024 for the first time in months. Fewer sellers implies fewer sales.

6/7 HOME PRICES Home prices held steady at $399,000. The insight now on home prices is how fragile it is. If we get bad inflation data and rates climb, I expect we'd see an abrupt price correction like we saw in 2022.