Yes, the BLS report is especially noisy on a monthly basis, but this softness is not a shocker. The ISM, Indeed and ADP employment data provided by the private sector all confirm what the BLS report says this morning. And despite people shrugging off ADP every month it's remarkably similar on a YoY basis to the BLS report.

Let's talk a little about the claims of "manipulation" here because I think there's a lot of misunderstanding about how this works. The BLS employment data comes from surveys designed to offer a timely, though imperfect, snapshot of labor market conditions. By nature, surveys involve estimation and are subject to revision as more comprehensive data becomes available. The most accurate and complete employment data comes from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is based on actual payroll tax filings submitted by virtually all employers to state unemployment insurance programs. This dataset covers over 95% of all U.S. wage and salary jobs. However, it lags by 5–8 months because: - Employers have up to 90 days to report, - States must compile and transmit data to the BLS, - And the BLS conducts quality control and processing before publication. Because of this lag, the BLS publishes more frequent data via the monthly surveys, which are less precise but provide a much-needed near-term signal. Over time, the survey data is benchmarked to the QCEW, improving its accuracy and aligning the two series. Claims of "manipulation" misunderstand how decentralized the data process is. The QCEW is compiled from state-administered records, not centrally dictated figures. For manipulation to occur, it would require coordination across 50 independent state labor departments—an implausible scenario given the structure and oversight involved.